Professor Kieran McQuinn, working for the ESRI has produced a paper on the Irish housing market downloadable here.
The Irish Times ran with the headline “ESRI says house prices 27% below real value” while the Irish Independent went with “Your house will be worth 20pc more by 2017 – ESRI”
You can make up your own mind but here are some caveats you might want to consider before reading.
- Projections are from December 2013 prices.
- This research jointly funded by NAMA and the IBF.
- This report uses a “recently developed forecasting model of Irish house prices presented in Kelly and McQuinn (2014)”.
- Importantly, the model does not assume any significant change in supply.